Indus Water Treaty and Scope for negotiation

Gustakhi Maaf Haryana-Pawan Kumar Bansal

Indus Water Treaty and Scope for renegotiation.By our enlightened reader R.N.Malik retired EIC,HSIDC.Thought for the day.

Pakistan is very lucky country to get the natural flow of three rivers Indus, Jhellum and Chenab through her territory and the total volume of flow is tremendous . Figures have been varying about the average annual flow of the three rivers. Total flow of six rivers is stated to be 170 MAF. This value is reducing for the last so many years due to climatic change. The flow of three rivers Ravi, Satluj and Beas is 33 MAF only. The flow of Indus ,Jhellum and Chenab from Indian territory is 90 MAF excluding POK. Hydrologically,Pakistan got lot of additional benefit by occupying the POK.
Why India agreed for just 33 MAF (28percent) and allowing 90 MAF to Pakistan is described below.
After the division of the country, utilisation of flow was governed by the Inter Dominion Accord of 4th May 1948. According to it, India was required to release sufficient water to Pakistan to meet irrigation needs from Ravi, Beas and Satulaj till a permanent accord is achieved and implemented. This arrangement was proving very costly to India as much less water was left for irrigation of fields of the then Panjab. So India desperately wanted to get a permanent accord. Somehow, the government thought that diversion of water from Chenab or Jhellum for utilisation in Panjab was topographically and infrastructurally an almost impossible proposition. So India desperately wanted to have exclusive control over three rivers of eastern Panjab at any cost without realising that the total flow of three rivers was only 33 MAF and could not meet the irrigationneeds of Panjab, Delhi and Rajasthan. However, India could add 10 MAF of additional water from Yamuna which successive CMs of Haryana never thought of building storage dams to harness the Monsoon flow. Even present government in Haryana is not thinking on those lines.
World Bank took the lead to help the two countries to arrive at an accord in 1952-53. They set up a Committee of engineers of Pak, India and consultants of World Bank hoping Engineers would give a better and quick solution. But it did not happen till 1959. Both sides stuck to their respective stands. As aleady, explained, status quo situation was a big hindrance to plan furure irrigation projects Finally World Bank talked ro both the countries and made them to agree on a proposal of exclusive use of water of three eastern rivers by India and over the use of three upper rivers by Pakistan. However , India was allowed to use the water of three upper rivers for irrigating 7 lac acres of agricultural land in Kashmir, develop hydropower on run-off-the- river basis and other purposes like drinking, fish culture etc. This amounts to utilisation of 1.5 MAF of water.
One problem of Pakistan was that she could not build a dam on Chenab for want of a suitable site for dam construction. So 10 or 12 MAF water during rains flows down the sea unutilised. But flow of Indus alone is so large that it can irrigate the entire land of Pakistan. It is a big bonanza or bion for Pakistan they must be worshipping it like we do for Ganges.
Pakistan built Terbela dam across Indus and Mangla dam across Jhellum. The live storage capacity of Terbela dam reservoir is 11 MAF against Bhakra’s 6 MAF. The live storage capacity of Mangla dam is 9 MAF. Their capacities are reducing by 1.5 percent each per year due to silt. But one Terbela dam of 11 MAF capacity cannot hold the entire flow of Indus and some percent flows to sea during the rainy season. Figures in this respect are not available. Spillover at Mangla dam is there but not to that extent.
Now the Indus Water Treaty has been suspended though It had been ratified by both the countries in 1960 with World Bank as the depository. The matter would definitely go to UNO and International Court of Justice.
Now, there are conflicting statements by the leaders of the government in this respect. The Home Minister declared that entire flow would be blocked and had directed the officials of Jalshakti Ministry to prepare the necessary roadmap. Now S. Jaishankar Ji tells that suspension will be offset the day Pakistan stops exporting terrorism to India in a credible and irreversible manner. There is no talk of renegotiation and total blockage of flow any longer.
To be continued.